Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 61475.981478 65051.734016 68631.459934 72481.270425 76501.646462 80573.461817 85006.298455
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56084.185816 61568.474110 67216.517721 73459.002941 80156.112829 87116.251660 94887.556070
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 51953.252615 58718.367231 65842.384721 73885.197642 82694.083900 92029.955651 102653.523755
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 48520.616587 56208.683066 64458.025355 73937.845722 84499.639145 95874.195861 109018.533618
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 45902.228461 54339.192077 63541.722609 74280.468153 86421.827590 99677.370354 115196.259157
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 43509.941210 52536.401246 62529.872199 74354.370019 87900.452899 102870.669342 120600.294949
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42038.640447 51667.884046 62471.611089 75412.911684 90411.341525 107164.143918 127205.207888
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40050.509273 50082.318814 61484.177239 75304.910385 91501.765196 109778.004822 131850.967671
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 38985.811438 49513.378318 61617.960746 76446.178530 93995.668299 113976.223795 138310.048222
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 37806.047842 48740.218607 61453.174450 77184.875613 95979.160988 117559.369038 144049.633114
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36340.538176 47553.271342 60734.648575 77209.131247 97072.534605 120069.956602 148517.166360
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 34911.729156 46349.895046 59940.870149 77091.201293 97952.840231 122298.000213 152633.099540
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34165.925548 45974.595517 60145.632870 78187.102815 100311.405296 126317.769387 158939.282564
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33328.897620 45450.916923 60141.291588 79007.739767 102328.283496 129935.297295 164789.645421
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32347.022738 44703.812772 59825.582305 79414.642765 103819.054484 132910.727365 169873.396161
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31256.536828 43776.235198 59247.184159 79461.235920 104840.244259 135301.539627 174246.302298
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30376.175513 43087.008913 58940.093322 79822.255430 106232.330486 138135.636729 179162.637755
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29419.107305 42263.172028 58430.962071 79900.141657 107249.701474 140498.113672 183500.897353
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 28972.415084 42094.648644 58748.412127 81021.111550 109575.516271 144482.409803 189857.501667
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28021.001853 41220.829372 58123.995967 80906.724633 110317.882059 146489.669529 193764.824359
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27671.351420 41143.068595 58527.570470 82115.199582 112745.361877 150609.686211 200324.727008
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27165.428376 40834.293682 58612.250111 82897.288351 114622.094008 154043.163570 206042.594419
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26380.514566 40118.057285 58134.943221 82922.967208 115509.547836 156222.495066 210187.688847